Gibraltar proves that vaccination does not stop Covid
The government of Gibraltar, a small ‘rock’ located at the Southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula, had declared the country Covid free in April, after 85% of the eligible population had been vaccinated. You would assume, that such a high vaccination rate shields the country from Covid, but the opposite is the case.
A first post-vaccination wave occurred in July/August peaking at 35 new cases per day. Recently a new wave has started, that has already brought the maximum number of daily cases to 65. Such a double-digit number appears to be small. But Gibraltar just has an official population of 34,000. Even if we include EU citizens working in the country, the relevant population is only 49,000. Adjusted for population size, the 65 daily cases in Gibraltar would result in over 440,000 new daily Covid infections in the USA.
Are all the newly infected unvaccinated? Certainly not. Government data shows, that among adults over 15 years of age, 80% of new Covid cases are vaccinated. Among those over 60 years of age, the share of the vaccinated Covid cases is even 92%. This is unsettling, as vaccines should particularly protect the elderly, who have a much higher risk of dying from Covid.
For children ≤15, the numbers look different, as only 5% of positive Covid cases are vaccinated and 95% are unvaccinated. However, it must be taken into account, that children under 12 years of age are not (yet) eligible for vaccination and inoculation of the 12-15 years age group only started on 20 October. That 9 vaccinated children have already tested positive for Covid shows the ‘breakthrough’ success of the vaccine (pun fully intended).
Gibraltar has relied almost exclusively on the Pfizer shot. To evaluate its effectiveness, a better understanding of the vaccination rate is required. The government of Gibraltar claims, that over 39,630 second doses have been administered. This would result in a vaccination rate of 117%, which obviously makes no sense. By including 10,000 Spanish cross border workers and another 5,000 EU citizens who work in the country, the relevant population rises to 49,000 resulting in 81% being fully vaccinated. This number is more credible, as children under the age of 12 have not been vaccinated, at least not yet.
Over the past 6 weeks, over 11,700 individuals representing 24% of the relevant population have received a booster shot. We can assume, that almost everyone among the elderly, who had previously been vaccinated, got the booster. In addition, some other high-risk individuals might also have received it.
Based on official Covid cases and conservative assumptions about the vaccination rate, the following can be assumed:
Vaccinated – total: 81% of population, 60% of new Covid cases
Vaccinated – adults (>15): >90% vaccinated, 80% of new Covid cases
Vaccinated – elderly (>60): >90% vaccinated plus booster, 92% of new Covid cases
It seems that vaccination (mostly with Pfizer) provided some protection against infection, but not much. Especially among the elderly, whose mortality risk from Covid is more than 1,000 times higher than that of children, infection protection of the vaccine appears to be very low, even though most of the booster shots were probably taken up by this age group. For those of working age, the protection seems to be higher, but as they have been vaccinated later, waning vaccine effectiveness might hit them in the coming weeks and months. Let’s see what is going to happen.
Gibraltar is a compelling example, that vaccines (or at least the Pfizer vaccine) don’t prevent infection. Considering the high vaccination rate of about 81%, it is highly unlikely, that the unvaccinated are driving the pandemic. On the contrary, it appears very likely, that the fully vaccinated are transmitting the virus to others, as has been confirmed by several medical studies (here, here, here and here).
Official data from Gibraltar demonstrates, that only 2.1% of the 739 residents, who tested positive for Covid, ended up in hospital, and not a single person died. As Gibraltar does not provide details about the vaccination status of those hospitalized, we don’t know whether the low hospitalization rate can be attributed to the vaccine. In any case, as 97.8% of those infected did not become severely sick, Covid is hardly a super deadly disease, as claimed by most governments and health authorities.
Gibraltar proves, that vaccines fail to protect people from being infected with SARS-CoV-2. Whether they prevent severe disease is unclear, as no details about the vaccination status of those hospitalized are provided. Irrespectively, in view of the low hospitalization and death rate, Covid does not justify far-reaching violations of human and economic rights, as are currently committed around the world.